Planning
Three scenarios every finance team should keep
A base case alone hides the decisions that matter. Keep an upside and a downside beside it and review all three each month.
5 Nov 2026
5 min read
A single number invites false comfort
A base case is a best guess. Presented alone, it reads as a promise. Leaders plan hiring and spend against it, and the first surprise forces a scramble.
Base, upside, downside
Keep three scenarios side by side. The base case uses current conversion and churn. The upside assumes the two or three things most likely to go well. The downside assumes a slow quarter and one large customer leaving.
The value is in the gap between them. If the downside still funds the plan, move quickly. If it does not, you have found the decision that deserves the meeting.